Improving CBO's Methodology for Projecting Individual Income Tax Revenues

Improving CBO's Methodology for Projecting Individual Income Tax Revenues

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In preparing its annual report on the budget outlook, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects revenues from the fed. individual income tax. This paper discusses two possible ways to use info. about tax collections to improve projections of tax receipts: Explicitly using the info. provided by recent tax collections to adjust the projections, and basing the projections on multiple years of info. from tax returns rather than relying on just the most recently available year. The results of this analysis suggests that combining the two approaches that is, using the info. from recent tax collections and relying on multiple years of tax return info. can modestly improve the near-term projection of individual income tax revenues. A print on demand report.In January 2010, for example, CBO released projections of federal revenues from the individual income tax for fiscal years 2010 through 2020. ... The projection for the next year, fiscal year 2011 (the a€œbudget year, a€ in this papera#39;s lexicon), reflected payments for liabilities ... It then takes the Internal Revenue Service (IRS ) several months to compile the information; typically, details from the tax returns, in theanbsp;...

Title:Improving CBO's Methodology for Projecting Individual Income Tax Revenues
Author: Kurt Seibert
Publisher:DIANE Publishing - 2011-06-01

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